National
Thu, 30 Jun 2005

Today's snapshot - Thu, 30 Jun 2005 (Updated 11:30 pm)

Victoria
Thu, 30 Jun 2005
 
 
 
 
 
 
Summary of the latest weekly market analysis


 

 

 

 

 

 

In Tasmania the spot price averaged $69/MWh. This represented a slight decrease from the previous week. A reduction in demand, along with increased capacity priced below $50/MWh, contributed. Average spot prices in the other regions ranged from $19/MWh in Queensland to $26/MWh in South Australia. These prices were consistent with the previous week.

The price volatility index was below the longer term trend in all interconnected regions. The price volatility index in Tasmania remains lower than for the other regions.

Turnover in the energy market was around $91 million, while the total cost of ancillary services for the week was $569,000 or 0.6 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. The cost for ancillary services in Tasmanian totalled $130,000 or 0.9 per cent of the energy market turnover for that region.

Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in around two thirds of all trading intervals in South Australia, 20 per cent in Tasmania and much lower in the other regions. Significant variations between forecast and actual prices occurred in 17 or 5 per cent of all trading intervals.

The analysis is provided for information only. It does not constitute business advice and should not be relied upon as a substitute for obtaining detailed analysis or advice about the operation of the national electricity market. Neither NECA nor any of its employees make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information in the analysis, or its conclusions.

NECA would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, NECA, level 5, 41 Currie Street, Adelaide SA 5000 (email padams@neca.com.au; mwilson@neca.com.au; fax (08) 8213 6300).

Long-term analysis

Energy and peak demand information in the national electricity market is presented below. Figures include Tasmania from 29 May 2005. Figure 1 highlights the annual national energy along with national summer and winter peak demands. Figure 2 shows the relationship between the regional peak demands and the coincident national peak.

Figure 1: national energy

Figure 2: regional demand

Figures 3 and 4 compare the average maximum temperatures for the summer (December to March) and winter (May to August) periods respectively with the long term averages for the same periods. Together with figures 1 and 2, these graphs highlight the effect of temperature on peak demand and energy. The trends in energy and seasonal peak demand are also tabulated. Tasmania is included from 20 May 2005.

Figure 3: summer temperatures

Figure 4: winter temperatures

Annual energy (TWh)

QLD

NSW

SNOWY^

VIC

SA

TAS

National

2003-04

48.9

74.0

0.7

49.4

13.0

185.3

2002-03

46.3

71.6

0.2

48.2

13.0

179.3

2001-02

45.2

70.2

0.3

46.8

12.5

175.0

2000-01

43.0

69.4

0.3

46.9

13.0

172.5

1999-00

41.0

67.6

0.2

45.8

12.4

167.1

1998-99 *

21.7

36.1

0.1

21.8

6.7

86.4

Seasonal peak demand (MW)

QLD

NSW

SNOWY^

VIC

SA

TAS

National

Summer 2004-05

8,189

08/02/05

12,854

30/11/04

690

24/12/04

8,492

25/01/05

2,625

11/01/05

1,352

02/12/04

28,803

23/02/05

Winter 2004

7,106

21/06/04

13,041

19/07/04

680

06/06/04

7,437

28/07/04

2,207

03/08/04

1,728

19/07/04

29,242

19/07/04

Summer 2003-04

7,918

23/02/04

12,216

09/03/04

680

16/02/04

8,583

17/12/03

2,602

16/12/03

1,341

29,791

20/02/04

Winter 2003**

6,778

31/07/03

12,468

28/07/03

212

25/06/03

7,499

30/07/03

2,158

23/06/03

1,684

28,358

30/07/03

Summer 2002-03

7,105

31/01/03

12,332

30/01/03

343

10/11/03

8,041

24/02/03

2,787

04/02/03

28,556

29/01/03

Winter 2002

6,345

02/07/02

12,074

18/06/02

258

23/06/02

7,300

27/06/02

2,129

27/06/02

27,230

02/07/02

Summer 2001-02

7,045

11/02/02

10,982

21/01/02

148

05/03/02

7,581

14/02/02

2,500

19/02/02

26,303

18/03/02

Winter 2001

6,397

09/07/01

11,713

09/07/01

194

05/06/01

7,137

14/06/01

2,095

24/07/01

26,569

09/07/01

Summer 2000-01

6,584

29/01/01

11,547

24/01/01

238

15/02/01

8,019

08/02/01

2,833

07/02/01

27,502

25/01/01

Winter 2000

6,343

06/06/00

11,822

30/05/00

134

25/05/00

7,113

29/05/00

2,142

28/06/00

26,977

05/06/00

Summer 1999-00

6,340

21/01/00

10,662

09/02/00

130

23/12/99

7,717

02/03/00

2,646

02/02/00

25,301

02/03/00

Winter 1999

5,879

28/06/99

11,424

15/06/99

737

18/06/99

6,745

15/06/99

1,921

02/08/99

25,713

15/06/99

Summer 1998-99

5,994

18/02/99

10,275

15/02/99

129

22/12/98

6,670

04/02/99

2,427

04/02/99

23,836

03/02/99

^ represents pump load

* 6 months

** demand value changed from TOTALDEMAND to INITIALSUPPLY

   

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