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Today's snapshot - Thu, 30 Jun 2005 (Updated 11:30 pm) |
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Summary of the latest weekly market analysis |
Overview
In Tasmania the spot price averaged $69/MWh. This represented a slight decrease from the previous week. A reduction in demand, along with increased capacity priced below $50/MWh, contributed. Average spot prices in the other regions ranged from $19/MWh in Queensland to $26/MWh in South Australia. These prices were consistent with the previous week.
The price volatility index was below the longer term trend in all interconnected regions. The price volatility index in Tasmania remains lower than for the other regions.
Turnover in the energy market was around $91 million, while the total cost of ancillary services for the week was $569,000 or 0.6 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. The cost for ancillary services in Tasmanian totalled $130,000 or 0.9 per cent of the energy market turnover for that region.
Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in around two thirds of all trading intervals in South Australia, 20 per cent in Tasmania and much lower in the other regions. Significant variations between forecast and actual prices occurred in 17 or 5 per cent of all trading intervals.
The analysis is provided for information only. It does not constitute business advice and should not be relied upon as a substitute for obtaining detailed analysis or advice about the operation of the national electricity market. Neither NECA nor any of its employees make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information in the analysis, or its conclusions.
NECA would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, NECA, level 5, 41 Currie Street, Adelaide SA 5000 (email padams@neca.com.au; mwilson@neca.com.au; fax (08) 8213 6300).
Price Summary
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1: national demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2: volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
|
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QLD
|
NSW
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VIC
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SA
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TAS
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Last week
|
19
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21
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21
|
26
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69
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Previous week
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17
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20
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20
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24
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79
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Same quarter last year
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29
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33
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31
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34
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Financial year to date
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31
|
46
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29
|
39
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% change from previous week
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▲9%
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▲4%
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▲2%
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▲8%
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▼12%
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% change from same quarter last year
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▼35%
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▼35%
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▼32%
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▼24%
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% change from previous year
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▼1%
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▲25%
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▲8%
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0%
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Figure 3: volatility index during peak periods
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QLD
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NSW
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VIC
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SA
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TAS
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Last week
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0.52
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0.54
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0.70
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0.47
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0.07
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Previous week
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0.36
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0.44
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0.46
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0.40
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0.33
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Same quarter last year
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0.68
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0.76
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0.66
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0.60
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Price Events
The spot price peaked in Tasmania at $100/MWh on Friday at 8am. Peak prices in the other regions ranged from $43/MWh in Queensland to $55/MWh in South Australia.
There were no low reserve conditions forecast throughout the week.
FCAS
The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $569,000 or 0.6 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. The cost for lower 5 minute services was up by nearly $200,000 on the previous week as a result of a network outage in Victoria for the latter half of the week. The cost for ancillary services in Tasmanian totalled $130,000 or 0.9 per cent of the energy market turnover for that region.
Regulation prices spiked for one despatch interval to $10,000/MW in Tasmania on Wednesday evening when every unit with an offer for regulation was inadvertently made unavailable.
Figure 4: volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
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Raise
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Lower
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||||||
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6
sec |
60
sec |
5
min |
Reg
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6
sec |
60
sec |
5
min |
Reg
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Last week($/MW)
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1.31
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0.42
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0.68
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0.92
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0.23
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1.44
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4.96
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1.62
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Previous
week ($/MW)
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1.20
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0.45
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0.70
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0.86
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0.22
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0.24
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0.70
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1.52
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Last quarter ($/MW)
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2.36
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1.50
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1.41
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1.32
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2.28
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2.13
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3.48
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1.70
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Market cost($1000s)
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64
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20
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44
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22
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2
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39
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210
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38
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% of energy
market
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0.08
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0.03
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0.06
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0.03
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0.00
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0.05
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0.28
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0.05
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Figure 5: Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
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Raise
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Lower
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||||||
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6
sec |
60
sec |
5
min |
Reg
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6
sec |
60
sec |
5
min |
Reg
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Last week($/MW)
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1.63
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0.48
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0.78
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1.34
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0.20
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0.22
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0.67
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1.46
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Previous
week ($/MW)
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2.94
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0.57
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0.79
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1.52
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0.26
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0.31
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1.25
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1.62
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Last quarter ($/MW)
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2.36
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1.50
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1.41
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1.32
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2.28
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2.13
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3.48
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1.70
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Market cost($1000s)
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82
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24
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52
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32
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1
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1
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14
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34
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% of energy
market
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0.07
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0.02
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0.04
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0.03
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0.00
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0.00
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0.01
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0.03
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Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6: daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7: regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8: prices for raise services
Figure 9: prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each or the ancillary services.
Figure 10: Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11: Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present for both raise and lower services the requirement for each service over the week.
Figure 12: raise requirements
Figure 13: lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present for both raise and lower services the Tasmanian requirement for each service over the week.
Figure 14: Tasmanian raise requirements
Figure 15: Tasmanian lower requirements
Demand
Energy and peak demand information in the national electricity market is presented below. Figure 1 highlights the annual national energy along with national summer and winter peak demands. Figure 2 shows the relationship between the regional peak demands and the coincident national peak.
Figure 1: national energy
Figure 2: regional demand
Figures 3 and 4 compare the average maximum temperatures for the summer (December to March) and winter (May to August) periods respectively with the long term averages for the same periods. Together these graphs highlight the effect of temperature on peak demand and energy. The trends in energy and seasonal peak demand are also tabulated.
Figure 3: summer temperatures
Figure 4: winter temperatures
Annual energy (TWh)
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QLD |
NSW |
SNOWY^ |
VIC |
SA |
TAS |
National |
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2003-04
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48.9 |
74.0 |
0.7 |
49.4 |
13.0 |
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185.3 |
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2002-03
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46.3 |
71.6 |
0.2 |
48.2 |
13.0 |
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179.3 |
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2001-02
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45.2 |
70.2 |
0.3 |
46.8 |
12.5 |
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175.0 |
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2000-01
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43.0 |
69.4 |
0.3 |
46.9 |
13.0 |
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172.5 |
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1999-00
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41.0 |
67.6 |
0.2 |
45.8 |
12.4 |
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167.1 |
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1998-99
*
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21.7 |
36.1 |
0.1 |
21.8 |
6.7 |
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86.4 |
Seasonal peak demand (MW)
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QLD |
NSW |
SNOWY^ |
VIC |
SA |
TAS |
National |
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Summer 2004-05
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8,189 08/02/05 |
12,854 30/11/04 |
690 24/12/04 |
8,492 25/01/05 |
2,625 11/01/05 |
1,352 02/12/04 |
28,803 23/02/05 |
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Winter 2004
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7,106 21/06/04 |
13,041 19/07/04 |
680 06/06/04 |
7,437 28/07/04 |
2,207 03/08/04 |
1,728 19/07/04 |
29,242 19/07/04 |
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Summer 2003-04
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7,918 23/02/04 |
12,216 09/03/04 |
680 16/02/04 |
8,583 17/12/03 |
2,602 16/12/03 |
1,341
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29,791 20/02/04 |
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Winter 2003**
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6,778 31/07/03 |
12,468 28/07/03 |
212 25/06/03 |
7,499 30/07/03 |
2,158 23/06/03 |
1,684
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28,358 30/07/03 |
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Summer 2002-03
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7,105 31/01/03 |
12,332 30/01/03 |
343 10/11/03 |
8,041 24/02/03 |
2,787 04/02/03 |
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28,556 29/01/03 |
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Winter 2002
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6,345 02/07/02 |
12,074 18/06/02 |
258 23/06/02 |
7,300 27/06/02 |
2,129 27/06/02 |
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27,230 02/07/02 |
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Summer 2001-02
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7,045 11/02/02 |
10,982 21/01/02 |
148 05/03/02 |
7,581 14/02/02 |
2,500 19/02/02 |
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26,303 18/03/02 |
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Winter 2001
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6,397 09/07/01 |
11,713 09/07/01 |
194 05/06/01 |
7,137 14/06/01 |
2,095 24/07/01 |
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26,569 09/07/01 |
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Summer 2000-01
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6,584 29/01/01 |
11,547 24/01/01 |
238 15/02/01 |
8,019 08/02/01 |
2,833 07/02/01 |
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27,502 25/01/01 |
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Winter 2000
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6,343 06/06/00 |
11,822 30/05/00 |
134 25/05/00 |
7,113 29/05/00 |
2,142 28/06/00 |
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26,977 05/06/00 |
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Summer 1999-00
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6,340 21/01/00 |
10,662 09/02/00 |
130 23/12/99 |
7,717 02/03/00 |
2,646 02/02/00 |
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25,301 02/03/00 |
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Winter 1999
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5,879 28/06/99 |
11,424 15/06/99 |
737 18/06/99 |
6,745 15/06/99 |
1,921 02/08/99 |
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25,713 15/06/99 |
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Summer 1998-99
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5,994 18/02/99 |
10,275 15/02/99 |
129 22/12/98 |
6,670 04/02/99 |
2,427 04/02/99 |
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23,836 03/02/99 |
^ represents pump load
* 6 months
** demand value changed from TOTALDEMAND to INITIALSUPPLY
Spot prices
The graphs and tables shows spot prices over the longer term.
Quarterly volume weighted average prices
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QLD |
NSW |
SNOWY |
VIC |
SA |
TAS |
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Mar 2005 |
25 |
35 |
21 |
22 |
31 |
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Dec 2004 |
48 |
90 |
33 |
38 |
54 |
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Sep 2004 |
27 |
31 |
22 |
28 |
36 |
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Jun 2004 |
29 |
33 |
24 |
31 |
34 |
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Mar 2004 |
45 |
60 |
21 |
30 |
64 |
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Dec 2003 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
24 |
33 |
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Sep 2003 |
28 |
33 |
27 |
23 |
26 |
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Jun 2003 |
25 |
33 |
27 |
28 |
28 |
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Mar 2003 |
23 |
33 |
20 |
24 |
30 |
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Dec 2002 |
64 |
39 |
26 |
28 |
32 |
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Sep 2002 |
54 |
43 |
30 |
38 |
40 |
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Jun 2002 |
58 |
66 |
43 |
49 |
50 |
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Mar 2002 |
35 |
28 |
23 |
27 |
29 |
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Dec 2001 |
31 |
28 |
22 |
28 |
27 |
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Sep 2001 |
27 |
30 |
25 |
28 |
28 |
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Jun 2001 |
34 |
34 |
30 |
32 |
36 |
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Mar 2001 |
56 |
52 |
31 |
72 |
110 |
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Dec 2000 |
44 |
27 |
26 |
37 |
56 |
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Sep 2000 |
44 |
49 |
49 |
54 |
60 |
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Jun 2000 |
59 |
41 |
37 |
40 |
54 |
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Mar 2000 |
77 |
35 |
22 |
29 |
90 |
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Dec 1999 |
28 |
19 |
16 |
18 |
78 |
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Sep 1999 |
32 |
26 |
21 |
23 |
78 |
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Jun 1999 |
31 |
29 |
21 |
29 |
50 |
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Mar 1999 |
94 |
21 |
17 |
25 |
60 |
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Annual volume weighted average prices
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QLD |
NSW |
SNOWY |
VIC |
SA |
TAS |
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Year to date (18 Jun) |
31 |
46 |
26 |
29 |
39 |
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